Cyclone Melissa Gains Power As It Moves In the Direction of the Island Nation
Hurricane Melissa is projected to escalate to a rare Category 5 cyclone as it turns in the direction of Jamaica, causing life-threatening rapid inundation and rock falls.
The cyclone, which registered winds of up to 120 mph as of 0600 Greenwich Mean Time, is currently turning northwest in the Caribbean Sea and is projected to hit the coast by midweek, as reported by meteorological authorities.
Warnings of blackouts and structural damage have been announced as this storm produces up to 30 inches of rain and sea level surges as high as 13ft above typical tides. "Find safe refuge immediately," inhabitants have been advised.
The cyclone is the 13th cyclone in the ongoing Atlantic hurricane season, which usually concludes in November.
Highest-Level Storm Threat
A highest-level cyclone is the most intense classification, with winds of at least 157 miles per hour.
While Melissa is projected to reduce in intensity to a fourth-level cyclone before arriving at the island, meteorologists said there was "almost no noticeable change in the overall impacts" upon reaching the coast, and that the storm will be "equally strong" when it strikes the country.
Urgent Preparations
With storm-force gusts and precipitation predicted to begin well before it moves across central Jamaica - including potentially the capital, Kingston - advisories state that "preparations should be rushed to completion".
"An extended timeframe of harmful winds and intense precipitation has started and will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous mudslides," counseled climate experts.
The country's head of government Andrew Holness said: "I know that there are numerous residents who are anxious, who are extremely apprehensive, and rightfully so: you should be concerned.
"But the optimal approach to address anxiety and any nervousness and worry is to stay ready."
Locals are being advised to protect their properties with protective bags and timber panels, and to stock up on necessary supplies.
Regional Impact
Advisories are also active for regions of the neighboring country including the main city, Port au Prince, the Dominican Republic and Cuba's eastern region, where Melissa is expected to bring comparable impacts by the midweek period.
Rock slides currently triggered by the cyclone have resulted in two fatalities in Haiti, according to emergency services.
Projected Trajectory
This weather system is predicted to pass over Cuba by midweek before passing across the Greater Antilles and entering the open ocean.
By the point it reaches Cuba, it is forecast to have diminished to a category three storm.
Environmental Context
Although it is challenging to associate particular meteorological occurrences to climate change, researchers say it is resulting in weather phenomena more common and more extreme.
Increased sea temperatures generate more moisture in the environment, contributing to the creation of hurricanes.
Prior to the commencement of the current Atlantic hurricane season, meteorological authorities projected above-normal activity, mentioning heated marine conditions and potential enhanced seasonal rains around West Africa - where tropical systems frequently develop.
